V roku 2021 sa epidémia COVID-19 naďalej šírila po celom svete, zatiaľ čo Spojené štáty pokračovali v implementácii menovej politiky uvoľňovania. Po nástupe Bidena do úradu navrhol výdavkové plány vrátane 1,9 bilióna ekonomickej pomoci a 1,2 bilióna účtu na výstavbu infraštruktúry. Nadmerné vydávanie peňazí bolo nevyhnutné, čo viedlo k zvýšeniu cien komodít vrátane základných kovov. Medzi nimi na popredných miestach stúpli ceny cínu.
V roku 2021 cena cínu na medzinárodnom trhu vykazovala trend jednostranného rastu a ročná oficiálna cenová ponuka cínu LME vzrástla o 86 percent. Najnižšia cena bola 20 710/t a najvyššia 39 875/t. Priemerná cena bola 31 141/tona s medziročným--ročným nárastom o 82 percent . Zásoby LME vzrástli o 8,6 percenta z 1,{14}} tony na 2 020 ton.
V roku 2021 možno cenový trend LME cínu rozdeliť zhruba do dvoch kôl rastu, od začiatku roka do konca septembra cena vzrástla z 20 970 USD/t na 35 800 USD/tonu relatívne vysoko v roku, v r. začiatkom októbra mierna korekcia na minimum 33400 USD/tona, po ktorej druhá vlna opätovného rastu koncom novembra dosiahla 39875 USD/tonu. Odvtedy šok trvá do konca roka.
Podobne ako v prípade trendu cien cínu na LME, aj v roku 2021 sa spotová cena cínu na Šanghajskom trhu dostala z vlny rastúceho trhu. Shanghai market tin spot index za rok vzrástol o 95 percent. Najnižšia je 152 838 juanov/tona, najvyššia 300 063 juanov/tona, priemer je 227 049 juanov/tona, čo predstavuje medziročný--ročný nárast o 87 percent. Zásoby v predchádzajúcom období prudko klesli z 5 574 ton na 1 260 ton, čo predstavuje pokles o 77 percent.
Customs statistics show that from January to November 2021, China's tin concentrate import volume totaled 164,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25 percent ; Refined tin imports of 4,588 tons, down 71.8 percent year on year; Refined tin exports totaled 14,000 tons, up 239 percent year on year; Net exports of refined tin totaled more than 9,000 tons. China's refined tin production totaled 214,200 tons in 2021, up 11.07 percent year on year, according to the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.
Podľa údajov zverejnených Svetovým úradom pre štatistiku kovov (WBMS) bola v roku 2021 celosvetová hlásená produkcia rafinovaného cínu 380 100 mt a dopyt 378 800 mt, čo je mierny prebytok.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, released in January, noted that, following a strong rebound in 2021, global economic growth is entering a period of marked slowdown due to new threats posed by novel Coronavirus variants, combined with rising inflation, debt and income inequality. Global growth is expected to slow markedly from 5.5 per cent in 2021 to 4.1 per cent in 2022, with some negative impact on base metals markets, as the release of pent-up demand in the previous phase is completed and fiscal and monetary support policies are withdrawn. As for the tin market, from the supply side, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the world's largest refined tin exporter, has talked about tin export twice recently. In November, he told an annual meeting of the central bank that Indonesia could halt tin exports by 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry. In January, he said at the 2022 G20 Business Meeting in Indonesia that he would ensure that Indonesia could meet the world's demand for tin, nickel and bauxite, not in the form of raw materials, but in the form of finished or semi-finished products with high added value. I think that the outside world may question the strength of Indonesia's policy implementation because of past experience, but at present, this is very likely to happen. On the one hand, Indonesia's aggressive development of nickel downstream production since 2015 has seen results, not only creating a lot of jobs, but also having a positive impact on its exports and trade balance. The Indonesian government is expected to apply the success of nickel to other mining products. On the other hand, when Joko's second term as president expires in 2024, he is expected to follow the development model of the nickel industry and roll out industrial policies on all mining products, including tin, in which Indonesia is dominant, before the end of his term, thus becoming a highlight of his achievements. Based on the above two factors, if conditions are mature, the Indonesian government can fully advance the implementation date of the suspension of tin export, so there will be great uncertainty in the global tin supply in the next 2-3 years. From the consumption side, according to the international Tin Industry Association estimates, in 2022, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 16,000 to 19,000 tons of tin, and last year, the photovoltaic industry with about 14,000 tons of tin, considerable growth. Thus, this year tin market overall consumption will continue to maintain growth.
Pokiaľ ide o cenu, očakáva sa, že lunxi bude tento rok fungovať v rozmedzí 40,{2}} 48,000 USD/tona a Huxi sa prispôsobí a šokuje v oblasti 300 000 350 000 RMB/tonu.
